As of Tuesday, September 10, 2024, Hurricane Francine continues its approach toward the Gulf Coast, with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasting potential landfall later this week. The storm is showing signs of intensification, with new data from Hurricane Hunter aircraft revealing varying pressures and growing organization within the system. Francine, currently classified as a Category 1 hurricane, is expected to strengthen further, prompting evacuation orders across southern Louisiana.
Two separate reconnaissance flights, one from the Air Force and one from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), have been tracking Francine’s development. The Air Force aircraft recorded a minimum central pressure of 994 millibars (mb), while NOAA’s aircraft reported an even lower pressure. A decrease in central pressure typically indicates that a storm is intensifying. Although winds at flight level were not exceptionally strong, the northeast quadrant of the hurricane displayed increasing organization, a key factor in future intensification.
Model guidance for Francine’s track remains consistent, with most forecast models converging on a landfall scenario near Vermillion Bay, Louisiana. Both the European (Euro) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models predict landfall in this region, though the Euro ensemble leans slightly farther west. This variance has led to speculation that the NHC may shift the projected track slightly westward, giving weight to the Euro’s historical accuracy. Nonetheless, the entire Louisiana coast remains well within the NHC’s forecast cone, and the possibility of changes in Francine’s path cannot be ruled out.
Hurricane Francine’s potential strength at landfall has become a critical concern. Some hurricane-specific models are predicting that Francine could reach pressures in the 960 millibars range at landfall, which would place it as a strong Category 2 or possibly a Category 3 storm. Such an intensity would bring significant wind damage, heavy rainfall, and dangerous storm surge to low-lying areas along the Gulf Coast. With warm Gulf waters providing ample fuel, the potential for rapid intensification remains a possibility.
In response to the storm’s threat, local officials have issued mandatory evacuation orders for several vulnerable parishes. Southern Cameron Parish in southwestern Louisiana is under a mandatory evacuation order, as are portions of Plaquemines and Jefferson parishes in southeastern Louisiana. These areas are particularly susceptible to storm surge and flooding due to their low elevation and proximity to the coast. Residents in these regions are urged to leave immediately, with officials warning that failure to evacuate could result in life-threatening conditions.
As Hurricane Francine approaches, concerns extend beyond coastal impacts. A tornado risk has been identified for parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle as the storm pushes inland later this week. Tornadoes are a common secondary threat in the outer bands of hurricanes, particularly in the northeastern quadrant. This risk is expected to materialize on Thursday, with the potential for isolated but severe tornadoes to develop as the storm moves inland.
The next advisory from the NHC, expected at 10 p.m. Eastern Time, will likely provide further details on Francine’s intensity and path. The center is closely monitoring the data from the Hurricane Hunter flights, which will inform their updated projections. Meteorologists are also watching closely for any signs of rapid intensification, a phenomenon that can drastically alter the storm’s strength and impact in a short period.
The storm’s exact impact on the Gulf Coast will depend on several factors, including its final landfall location, wind speed at landfall, and storm surge potential. However, given the warm Gulf waters and current model guidance, residents from Texas to Alabama should remain on high alert for potential hurricane-force conditions later this week.
As the situation evolves, authorities are urging residents in the affected areas to prepare for potential impacts. Those in evacuation zones should follow official directives and leave the area immediately. For others, stocking up on essential supplies, including water, non-perishable food, and medications, is crucial in case of power outages or flooding. Local shelters are being set up, and information about their locations is being disseminated by state and local officials.
In addition to the wind and surge threat, heavy rainfall is expected, which could result in flash flooding in both coastal and inland areas. The National Weather Service (NWS) has already issued flood watches for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Depending on Francine’s speed, some areas could receive up to 10 inches of rain, exacerbating the flooding risk.
The 2024 hurricane season has been particularly active, with Hurricane Francine marking the sixth named storm to develop in the Atlantic. Experts have warned that the season may continue to produce powerful storms, with sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic running well above average. These warm waters provide the necessary energy for storms like Francine to intensify, a worrying trend for coastal communities.
As the Gulf Coast braces for the storm, it is essential to stay informed. Regular updates from the NHC and local authorities will be crucial for understanding how Francine develops over the next 24 to 48 hours. Residents are advised to follow trusted sources for information and remain prepared for potential impacts as the storm continues its approach.
